Saudi Journal of Gastroenterology
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Year : 2018  |  Volume : 24  |  Issue : 4  |  Page : 211-219

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden – Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, 2017–2030


1 Liver Disease Research Center, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
2 Hepatology Division, Department of Hepatobiliary Sciences and Organ Transplant Center, King Abdulaziz Medical City; King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences and King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Ministry of National Guard - Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
3 Liver Disease Research Center, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; Gastroenterology Unit, Department of Medicine, King Abdulaziz Medical City, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
4 Department of Liver Transplantation and Hepatobiliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Division of Organ Transplant Center, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center-Riyadh; Department of Medicine, College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
5 Department of Medicine, Gastroenterology Unit, King Fahd Military Medical Complex, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
6 Liver Disease Research Center, College of Medicine, King Saud University; Department of Liver Transplantation and Hepatobiliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Division of Organ Transplant Center, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center-Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
7 Gastroenterology Section, Department of Medicine, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
8 Gastroenterology Unit, Rashid Hospital, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
9 Gastroenterology Division, Mafraq Hospital, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
10 Department of Gastroenterology, Zayed Military Hospital, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
11 Department of Medicine, Gastroenterology Unit, King Fahad Hospital, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
12 Center for Disease Analysis, Lafayette, Colorado, USA
13 Department of Internal Medicine, Jeddah University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Correspondence Address:
Dr. Homie Razavi
Center for Disease Analysis, 1120 W. South Boulder Rd., Ste. 102, Lafayette, Colorado
USA
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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None


DOI: 10.4103/sjg.SJG_122_18

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Background/Aim: Due to epidemic levels of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and resulting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) will be driving factors in liver disease burden in the coming years in Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE). Materials and Methods: Models were used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression, primarily based on changes in adult prevalence rates of adult obesity and DM. The published estimates and expert interviews were used to build and validate the model projections. Results: In both countries, the prevalence of NAFLD increased through 2030 parallel to projected increases in the prevalence of obesity and DM. By 2030, there were an estimated 12,534,000 NAFLD cases in Saudi Arabia and 372,000 cases in UAE. Increases in NASH cases were relatively greater than the NAFLD cases due to aging of the population and disease progression. Likewise, prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis and advanced liver disease are projected to at least double by 2030, while annual incident liver deaths increase in both countries to 4800 deaths in Saudi Arabia and 140 deaths in UAE. Conclusions: Continued high rates of adult obesity and DM, in combination with aging populations, suggest that advanced liver disease and mortality attributable to NAFLD/NASH will increase across both countries. Reducing the growth of the NAFLD population, along with potential therapeutic options, will be needed to reduce liver disease burden.


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